セミナーと勉強会

教室では週1回(現在は主に火曜日のAM8:00)にDepartment研究セミナーを開催しており,また,様々な他のセミナーを開催しています。以下が定例のセミナー都合です:
月曜日 8:45から15分 Journal scanning(Eurosurveillanceの研究スキャンを行います)
火曜日 8:00-9:00くらい Department研究セミナー
水曜日 8:45から15分 Outbreak scanning(日本・世界の感染症流行情報を集めます)
不定期実施 金曜日の8:45から Infectious Disease Modelling (西浦が実施)
Department研究セミナーは以下が情報で、教室外の方も歓迎します.他についても希望などがあれば参加希望者は事前にhygiene(at)med.hokudai.ac.jpまで連絡を下さい.

Time: 8:00 AM, December 4 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryohei Saito
Title: Introduction of Infectious-Age Structure to parameter estimation of HPV and cervical cancer
Abstract: In mathematical modeling of infectious disease, infectious-age structure can be considered in addition to age structure. We show the application of such model to HPV.

Time: 8:00 AM, November 27 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Xiaodan Sun
Title: Multiscale system for infectious disease
Abstract: The transmission of infectious disease is affected by mechanisms in multi-levels, including the individual level, population level, community level, environmental level, etc. In this talk, I will give some multiscale systems for investigating the effect of HAART and intervention measures of HIV/AIDS transmission in China. Meanwhile, some dynamical behaviors of the multiscale system for environmentally-driven infectious disease with threshold control strategy will also be given briefly.

Time: 8:00 AM, November 20 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Hyojung Lee
Title: Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic
Abstract: West Africa declared erroneously to the end of Ebola epidemic in 2015-2016. The more objective approach to determine the end of Ebola epidemic is suggested by employing mathematical model considering the risk of sexual transmission. The sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the impact of unknown parameters on the timing of the freedom from Ebol virus disease. Moreover, we assess the validation of our model and cost-effectiveness.

Time: 8:00 AM, November 13 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Baoyin Yuan
Title: Rising mortality risk among young population from pandemic influenza
Abstract: In this seminar, I am going to introduce three immune hypotheses potentially contributing to age-specific mortality risks from pandemic influenza.

Time: 8:00 AM, November 6 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Sung-mok Jung
Title: The impact of pneumococcal vaccination on pneumonia mortality among the elderly in Japan: A difference in difference study
Abstract: It is plausible that the routine immunization among infants using pneumococcal conjugate vaccine 13 (PCV13) from 2013 and among the elderly using pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine 23 (PPV23) from 2014 contributed to reducing the pneumonia mortality among the elderly in Japan. Thus, we estimated the causal effect of these vaccination on pneumonia mortality, using the available cause of death data and employing a difference-in-difference (DID) study design.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 30 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Taishi Kayano
Title: The estimation of congenital rubella syndrome
Abstract: The congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is the infection of infants born to women who are infected rubella during the first trimester of pregnancy. Japan experienced a large-scale rubella epidemic from 2012 to 2014, as a consequence, 45 CRS cases were found. To find the effective supplementary vaccination scenarios which make CRS incidences reduce, we developed the CRS model by using rubella model presented at previous research seminar.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 23 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Asami Anzai
Title: Reconstruction of foreign residents by length of stay
Abstract: In Japan, proportion of foreign-born cases among newly notified TB cases have increased. To estimate the risk of tuberculosis in foreign residents, we tried to reconstruct the number of foreign residents by length of stay.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 16 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Tetsuro Kobayashi
Title: Spatio-temporal and socio-demographic patterns of Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika infections in Mexico in 2016-2017
Abstract: Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viral infections are vector-borne diseases that are endemic in Mexico. Here we analyze the relationship between onset timing and climate data and socio-economic variables across the country. Chikungunya and Dengue both show “south-to-north” spreading patterns especially in the states that are located along the coast lines of Mexico. Onset timings of Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika epi-curves can be predicted by some socio-economic variables with the coefficients of determination of 0.7540, 0.8472, and 0.8949, respectively. The coastline and south-to-north patterns of spreading, as well as socio-economic factors, may be good predictors of epidemic onset for these vector-borne infectious diseases.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 9 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yang Yichi
Title: Estimating the transmission potential of Influenza using distributions of cross-sectional seroepidemiological surveys
Abstract: Previous seroepidemiological studies about influenza relied on almost arbitrarily chosen cut-off value of seropositivity which brings unavoidable underestimation. We construct a antibody titer level structured mathematical model of influenza transmission to catch the transmission potential without imposing cut-off value.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 2 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yusuke Asai
Title: Dynamics of Zika virus epidemic under random environments
Abstract:
A mathematical model for Zika virus dynamics under randomly varying environment conditions is developed, in which the birth and death rates for mosquitoes as well as external force for mosquito compartments are modeled as random processes. The existence, uniqueness and positiveness of solutions of the resulting system are first discussed. Then the long term dynamics of the system with corresponding bounds is investigated.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 25 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Keita Yoshii
Title: Computational toxicology: Simulation study on human-health risk assessment by benchmark dose (BMD) approach
Abstract:
BMD approach is a new, statistic method to estimate risk on human from animal experiment in replacement of NOAEL (no-observed-adverse-effect level). However, the criteria is not well established scientifically. Building methodology of BMD approach is necessary for the risk on human health. In this presentation mathematical backgrounds and examples of analysis using an observed data will be provided.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 18 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Takayuki Yamaguchi
Title: Prediction of lung cancer incidence and deaths obtained by model of lung cancer and smoking
Abstract:
We consider a compartmental model of lung cancer and smoking, which is based on McKendrick partial differential equation. Unknown parameters included in the model are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. Number of population, number of deaths, number of lung cancer incidences, number of lung cancer deaths, smoking prevalence are available for the estimation. We present prediction of lung cancer incidence and deaths from the model under assumption that latest estimated parameters continue to hold in the future.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 4 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Title: On Lassa fever seasonal epidemics in Nigeria, 2016-2018
Abstract:
In my talk I will present final results of my project on Lassa fever epidemiology in Nigeria. I will highlight what I was able to obtain from the available datasets, and what methodology I used. I will also discuss briefly possible future directions.

Time: 8:00 AM, August 28 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Robin Thompson
Title: Modelling the beginning, middle and end of an Ebola outbreak
Abstract:
Using Ebola as a case study, I will discuss how stochastic epidemiological models can be used to guide decision-making at different stages of an infectious disease outbreak. At the beginning of an outbreak, key are as of uncertainty include how to perform surveillance effectively, and whether or not the outbreak will develop into a major epidemic. When a major epidemic is ongoing, modelling can be used to predict the final size and to plan control interventions. And at the apparent end of an epidemic, an important question is whether the epidemic is really over once there are no new observed symptomatic cases.

Time: 8:00 AM, August 21 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryohei Saito
Title: On the effect of vaccination against human papillomavirus in cervical cancer
Abstract:
Infection with HPV is known to be a necessary condition for suffering from cervical cancer, and prevention of HPV is one of major concern in epidemiology. However, in Japan, administration of HPV vaccine is not sufficiently done due to fears that there are serious side effects, despite of absence of evidence. I am trying to execute ODE-modeling and maximum likelihood estimation to analyze how relation there is between HPV vaccination and incidence and mortality in cervical cancer.

Time: 8:00 AM, July 24 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Hyojung Lee
Title: Gender-specific model of Ebola virus disease accounting for the impact of sexual transmission in Guinea
Abstract: The Ebola virus can be mainly transmitted by direct contact with blood, of bodily fluids of patients. Ebola virus is known to persist in immune-privileged sites such as semen. The long-term persistence has increased the risk of the sexual transmission from male survivors even after the official end of an outbreak. I am going to introduce the gender-specific model to assess the risk of sexual transmission by estimating the reproduction number which refers to the contribution of the direct transmission and sexual transmission.

Time: 8:00 AM, July 17 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Nao Yamamoto
Title: Disentangling the mechanisms behind the country-specific time of importation of Zika virus
Abstract: Zika virus (ZIKV) has remained as one of global public health concerns. There are two possible explanations for characterizing the time of importation and presence of reported case: (i) distance from Brazil and (ii) laboratory capacity of diagnosis. Our objective is to disentangle the mechanisms behind the country-specific time of ZIKV importation. In order to do that, we estimate the actual arrival time of ZIKV.

Time: 8:00 AM, July 10 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Lankeshwara Munasinghe
Journal: Lim S, Tucker CS, Kumara S., An unsupervised machine learning model for discovering latent infectious disease using social media data Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 66;82-94, 2017.

Time: 8:00 AM, July 3 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Taishi Kayano
Title: The estimation of scenarios of supplementary vaccination-programs against rubella
Abstract: A rubella is well known as one of vaccine-preventable diseases. However, Japan experienced a large-scale rubella epidemic from 2012 to 2014. The outbreak had salient features that most cases were males and the ages of them were mainly 30-39 years, followed by 40-49 years. Therefore, the mathematical model was employed by using the age and gender-dependent next generation matrix to estimate the most cost-beneficial and effective supplementary vaccination scenarios.

Time: 8:00 AM, June 26 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Sungmok Jung
Title: Forecasting of Seasonal Influenza with Humidity in Japan
Abstract: Influenza viruses are the most common cause of human respiratory infection globally and transmission and survival of influenza viruses are well known to have strong inverse association between humidity. Therefore, this study is to develop a framework for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza outbreaks in 47 prefectures of Japan by using simple SIR model and renewal equation considered absolute humidity condition.

Time: 8:00 AM, June 19 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Baoyin Yuan
Title: Ongoing research about dengue outbreak in Tokyo,2014
Abstract: I will continue to introduce my ongoing research about dengue outbreak in Tokyo. This outbreak in 2014 is the first domestic dengue outbreak in Japan in the past 70 years.
About this outbreak, there is still some epidemic issues which need to study.

Time: 8:00 AM, June 12 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Kazuki Shimizu
Title: Salmonella Outbreak by chicken salad in the U.S.
Abstract: Salmonella is a genus of bacteria that are a major cause of foodborne illness. They are generally transmitted to humans through consumption of contaminated food. Every year, multiple Salmonella outbreaks were reported in the U.S. Reporting delay is one of the issues for outbreak investigation. It takes typically 2-4 weeks from the exposure to contaminated food, water, or an infected animal. Projecting the number of cases is important. This time, we estimate the delay function to predict a real incidence by using the past epidemic curve.

Time: 8:00 AM, June 5 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yohei Sakamoto
Title: Time dependent of cytomegalovirus infection in Japan
Abstract: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a major cause of congenital infection with high mortality and morbidity rates. The decline of the observed proportion of anti-CMV antibody positive has been indicated. The present study aimed to quantify the time-dependent transmission dynamics of CMV infection in Japan, analyzing sero-epidemiological datasets among pregnant women collected from five cord blood banks from 1996 to 2009. Employing a mathematical model and using the maternal age distribution of child births from census data, we computed the probability of seropositive among pregnant women as a function of time.

Time: 8:00 AM, May 29 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Akira Endo
Title: Within-household transmission patterns of influenza: analysis of householdwise final size data from primary schools in Matsumoto city,2014/15.
Abstract: We devised a mathematical model which accounts for infections from both outside the household and within the household. Within-household transmission was better explained by proportionate mixing than homogeneous mixing, where different types of family members have different amounts of contact.

Time: 8:00 AM, May 22 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Shinya Tsuzuki
Title: Risk prediction of SFTS case observation in Japan
Abstract: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is one of life threatening emerging infectious diseases, which was originally found in China. In Japan, its spatial distribution has continued to expand. The present study aimed to devise a forecasting model of SFTS in Japan.

Time: 8:00 AM, May 15 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Title: Characteristics of a multi-country outbreak of measles in Japan and Taiwan, 2018
Abstract: I will give a report on recently done project on measles outbreak that was originated in Okinawa in March. I will start with overall picture of the outbreak, then I will describe the forecasting exercise by using next-generation approach.

Time: 8:00 AM, May 8 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Takayuki Yamaguchi
Title: Threshold phenomena of model of foot-and-mouth disease controlled by depopulation
Abstract: We consider a model of foot-and-mouth disease and depopulation, which is defined by ordinary differential equations. Threshold phenomena with respect to a start date of depopulation are found; when the date exceeds the value of threshold, the final size increases drastically. We also show the explanation of this threshold phenomena. This study started out as a group work of the summer course last year and is joint work with K. Itao, F. Omata, Y. Nishikawa, T. Oda, T. Sasaki, C. Zhang, and J.S. Maninang.

Time: 8:00 AM, April 24, Tuesday
Presenter: Lankeshwara Munasinghe
Abstract: I will present the summary of my current research “Deciphering the heterogeneous transmission dynamics using contact data”. This research aims to study and understand heterogeneous contact patterns in the population in order to plan effective actions against the spread of infectious diseases. Specifically, we are studying age-specific mixing patterns using contact survey data.

Time: 8:00 AM, April 17 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryo Kinoshita
Title: Brainstorming rubella & measles research ideas

Time: 8:00 AM, April 10 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yusuke Asai
Title: A PDE multiscale model of hepatitis C virus infection can be transformed to a system of ODEs
Abstract:
Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) by targeting its intracellular viral replication. DAAs are effective and deliver high clinical performance against HCV infection, but optimization of the DAA treatment regimen is ongoing. Different classes of DAAs are currently under development, and HCV treatments that combine two or three DAAs with different action mechanisms are being improved. To accurately quantify the antiviral effect of these DAA treatments and optimize multidrug combinations, we propose a user-friendly approach that transforms a standard PDE multiscale model of HCV infection to mathematically identical ordinary differential equations (ODEs) without any assumptions. We also confirm consistency between the numerical solutions of our transformed ODE model and the original PDE model.

Time: 8:00 AM, April 3 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Hyojung Lee
Title: Modeling of Ebola virus disease accounting for the impact of sexual transmission and asymptomatic infection
Abstract:
Ebola virus has been detected in the semen of survivors after their recovery. Although sexual transmission is relatively rare event, it raises the risk of re-emergence of outbreaks posed by persistence of the virus. I am going to introduce the mathematical model accounting for sexual transmission from Ebola survivors and non-sexual transmission from asymptomatic and symptomatic cases.

Time: 8:00 AM, Mar 27 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Nao Yamamoto
Authors: Yohei Sakamoto, Takayuki Yamaguchi, Nao Yamamoto, Hiroshi Nishiura
Title:  Modeling the elevated risk of yellow fever among travelers visiting Brazil, 2018
Abstract:
Unlike the epidemic of Yellow fever from 2016 to 2017, the epidemil from 2017 to 2018 resulted in multiple international disseminations. We analysed the distribution of imported cases from Brazil, 2018 in order to understand mechanisms behind the observation.

Time: 8:00 AM, Mar 20 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Shinya Tsuzuki
Title:  The recent trend of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Japanese health care facilities
Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has become a global health issue recently. Japan also implemented its own national action plan in 2016, therefore trends of AMR is an important interest for Japanese government. Currently, the proportion and reported number of MRSA (Methicillin-resistant S. aureus) were chronically examined. I will discuss the current tentative results and future challenges in the present study.

Time: 8:00 AM, March 13 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Andrei Akhmetzhanov
Journal: Deana KR et al Schmid BR (2017) Human ectoparasites and the spread of plague in Europe during the Second Pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 115(6): 1304-9
Abstract: I am going to present a paper recently published in PNAS and stated that flea and lice played a more important role in spreading the “Black Death” than rats. Methodologically, the authors considered three different compartmental SIR models and interfere with available historical data. To estimate how successful there were in selecting the right model will be one of the subject of my presentation.

Time: 8:00 AM, March 6 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Sungmok Jung
Journal :
[1] Whitaker H. J., Paddy Farrington C., Spiessens, B., Musonda P., Tutorial in biostatistics: the self-controlled case series method. Statistics in medicine, 25(10), 1768-1797, 2006.
[2] Petersen I., Douglas I., Whitaker H., Self controlled case series methods: an alternative to standard epidemiological study designs. BMJ, 354, i4515, 2016.
[3] Yih W. K., Maro J. C., et al., Assessment of Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Safety Using the Self-Controlled Tree-Temporal Scan Statistic Signal-Detection Method in the Sentinel System. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017.

Time: 8:00 AM, February 27 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yohei Sakamoto
Title:  Estimation of the number of perinatal infection from congenital infections
Abstract: The vertically transmitted infection can cause the severe congenital infection and leave children severely disabled. Therefore, it is important to assess the situation for maternal infection during pregnancy. In this talk, I am going to introduce TORCH complex, the situation for congenital infections in Japan and the model from other studies.

Time: 8:00 AM, February 20 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yuko Hamaguchi and Hyojung Lee
Journal:
[1] Benjamin J. Cowling, Hiroshi Nishiura, Virus Interference and Estimates of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness from Test-Negative Studies, Epidemiology, 23(6), 2012.
[2] Michael Haber, Qian An et al., A probability model for evaluating the bias and precision of influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from case-control studies, Epidemiology & Infection, 143(7), 1417–1426, 2015.
[3] Kylie E.C. Ainslie, Meng Shi, Michael Haber, Walter A. Orenstein, On the bias of estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness from test–negative studies, 35, 7297-7301, 2017.
[4] Meng Shi, Qian An, et al., Orenstein, A comparison of the test-negative and the traditional case-control study designs for estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness under nonrandom vaccination, BMC Infectious Disease, 2017.

Time: 8:00 AM, February 13 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Lankeshwara Munasinghe
Journal: Thomas Effland, Anna Lawson, Sharon Balter et al., Discovering foodborne illness in online restaurant reviews, Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, 2018. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocx093

Time: 8:00 AM, February 6 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yuan Baoyin
Title: Improved modeling about dengue outbreak Tokyo in 2014
Abstract: I am going to present an improved dengue model based on the correction of back-calculation and show the modified likelihood function.

Time: 8:00 AM, January 30 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Takayuki Yamaguchi
Title: Algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation and an application to model of lung cancer incidence
Abstract: We need some algorithms such as Newton method, numerical methods for ordinary differential equations and numerical differentiation to estimate parameters of mathematical model by maximum likelihood estimation. In this talk, outlines of such algorithms and an application to model of lung cancer incidence are shown. Confirmations of convergences of Newton method are also considered.

Time: 8:00 AM, January 23 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryota Matsuyama
Title: A real-time modeling of a diphtheria epidemic in Cox’s Bazar
Abstract: Diphtheria is one of the vaccine-preventable diseases and viewed as a disease of pre-vaccine era. However, an epidemic of diphtheria has been reported from November 2017 in a vulnerable Rohingya refugee population in Cox Bazar, Bangladesh. Although the growth of the epidemic is declining, as of 17 January 2018, a cumulative total number of 4682 suspected cases and 31 deaths have been counted. In this seminar, I will give a talk about the current situation of the epidemic, our model to estimate R0, results of estimation, and problems that we are facing.

Time: 8:00 AM, January 16 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Lankeshwara Munasinghe
Journal: Niel Hens, Nele Goeyvaerts, Marc Aerts, Ziv Shkedy, Pierre Van Damme and Philippe Beutels, Mining social mixing patterns for infectious disease models based on two-day population survey in Belgium. Proceedings of BMC Infectious Diseases, 9(1), 2009.

Time: 8:00 AM, January 9 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Louis CHAN Yat Hin
Title: Transmission dynamics of hepatitis A virus (HAV) in Japan
Abstract: HAV infection is mainly transmitted by the fecal oral route not only through person to person but also contaminated food or water. Due to improved sanitary conditions in Japan, a significant decline in the incidence is observed. As lifelong immunity is conferred after infection, susceptibility and the average age at infection increases. Since the severity of symptoms increases with age, older age at infection can lead to higher HAV burden. Therefore, it is crucial to understand transmission dynamics with age structure. I am going to first introduce global HAV seroprevalence declining and models from other studies, then following a brief research plan of using Japanese data sets to estimate for example time and age dependent exposure distribution.

Time: 8:00 AM, December 26 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Hyojung Lee
Title: Mathematical model with the impact of sexual transmission on Ebola virus disease
Time: Tuesday, December 26, 8:00 AM
Abstract: Ebola virus primarily be transmitted by direct contact with body fluids or skin of patients. Evidence has suggested that Ebola virus can persist in semen up to 9 months after symptom onset. But, the risk of sexual transmission remains unclear on disease dynamics. We developed a mathematical model which describe the impact of sexual transmission, and direct transmission by both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

Time: 8:00 AM, December 19 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryo Kinoshita
Title: Temporal dynamics of measles in Japan
Abstract: Measles is a common childhood infection that almost everyone experiences before mass vaccination was introduced. Among childhood infections, its simplicity of the natural history allowed excellent documentations of epidemic dynamics. Using Japanese surveillance data, I will explain the dynamics of measles in Japan.

Time: 8:00 AM, December 12 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Shinya Tsuzuki
Title: Estimating effective reproduction number of Syphilis in Japan
Abstract: Syphilis is one of the most important sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and its incidence in Japan has been increasing recently. We developed a mathematical model based on renewal equation, to estimate its effective reproduction number in Japanese settings and will make further discussion about the recent increase of incidence.

Time: 12:00 PM, December 6 (Wednesday)
Presenter: Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Journal: Deyle ER, Maher MC, Hernandez RD, Basu S, Sugihara G (2016) Global environmental drivers of influenza. PNAS 113(46): 13081-6 doi:10.1073/pnas.1607747113

Time: 8:00 AM, December 5 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryota Matsuyama & Nao Yamamoto
Journal: Rogoes RR, Ebert D and Bonhoeffer S (2002). Dose-dependent infection rates of parasites produce the Allee effect in epidemiology. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences, 269, 271-279.

Time: 12:00 PM, November 22 (Wednesday)
Presenter: Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Journal: Deyle ER, Maher MC, Hernandez RD, Basu S, Sugihara G (2016) Global environmental drivers of influenza. PNAS 113(46): 13081-6 doi:10.1073/pnas.1607747113

Time: 8:00 AM, November 21 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Baoyin YUAN
Title: Assessing the effectiveness of controlling measures on DENV infections in Yoyogi park in 2014
Abstract: I am going to review the data profile of this outbreak, and elucidate the motivation and purpose of this topic. Mathematical modeling and expected results would be shown.

Time: 8:00 AM, November 14 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
Journal: Goldstein E, Cobey S, Takahashi S, Miller JC, Lipsitch M, Predicting the Epidemic Sizes of Influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: A Statistical Method, PLoS Med Vol.8, No.7, 2011.

Time: 8:00 AM, November 7 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Sung-Mok Jung
Journal 1: Lowen, Anice C., and John Steel, Roles of humidity and temperature in shaping influenza seasonality, Journal of virology Vol.88, No.14, 2014.
Journal 2: Metz, Jane A., and Adam Finn, Influenza and humidity–Why a bit more damp may be good for you!, Journal of Infection Vol.71, 2015.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 31 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Fuminari Miura
Title: Estimating the transmissibility of norovirus in household settings from final size distributions
Abstract: Norovirus is one of the most frequent causes of infectious gastroenteritis and well known for its high infectivity and asymptomatic ratio. We developed a mathematical model, based on Longini-Koopman model, to estimate the transmissibility of norovirus in household settings and compare the risk of asymptomatic and symptomatic infections.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 17 (Tuesday)
Presenter:  Yusuke Asai
Title: Numerical optimization + optim function
Abstract: We use optim or optimize function when we estimate parameter values in R, however, we often ignore the details of optimization methods and the corresponding algorithms. In this talk the general idea of numerical optimization as well as 3 optimization methods, namely BFGS, CG and Nelder-Mead, are introduced.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 10 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yuko Hamaguchi
Title: Estimating the annual risk of TB infection with INF-γ release assay(2nd repot)Abstract: To evaluate the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) within a population, the annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (ARTI) is one of the essential indicators. As selo-prevalence survey Tuberculin skin test (TST) has been widely used to assess prevalence of TB infection for long-term, While TST is largely affected by BCG vacctination, a whole-blood interferon gamma (INF-γ) assay is not. Although the TST response is longer lasting than the INF-γ response, it is implied that both of them wane their responses resulting into certain reversion. The presentation aims to explain how our ongoing study contract models considering IFN-γ waning to derived the resent annual risk of TB infection using current sero-prevalence survey under the BCC-era and the results.

Time: 8:00 AM, October 3 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Lankesh Munasinghe
Title: Deciphering the heterogeneous transmission dynamics using contact data
Abstract: This research aims to study and understand heterogeneous contact patterns in the population in order to plan effective actions against the spread of infectious diseases. Currently, we are studying age-specific mixing patterns using contact survey data.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 26 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Takayuki Yamaguchi
Title: Parameter estimation of model of lung cancer and smoking rate
Abstract: To investigate effects of decrease of smoking rate, we defined compartment model of lung cancer and smoking rate and tried to estimate its parameters. The parameter estimation is obtained from number of population, number of lung cancer incidences, number of lung cancer deaths, and smoking rate. We will explain the detail of the estimation.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 19 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yohei Sakamoto
Title: Estimation of the effective reproduction number of HIV in Japan
Abstract: In Japan, a total of 17,909 cases of HIV infection and 8,086 cases of AIDS have been reported as the end of 2015 and 1,434 cases were newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in 2015. The number of new diagnosed cases has leveled off since around 2007. This suggests that prevention approaches and anti-retroviral therapy (ART) which was instituted since 1997 in Japan might reduce HIV/AIDS incidence. I will present the result of the effective reproduction number of HIV in Japan which I estimated by using McKendrick partial differential equation system.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 11 (Monday)
Presenter: Ryota Matsuyama
Journal: Cowling BJ, Ip DK, Fang VJ, Suntarattiwong P, Olsen SJ, Levy J, Uyeki TM, Leung GM, Malik Peiris JS, Chotpitayasunondh T, Nishiura H, Mark Simmerman J., Aerosol transmission is an important mode of influenza A virus spread. Nature Communication. 2013;4:1935.

Time: 8:00 AM, September 5 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Louis Chan
Journal: Stockdale, Jessica E., Theodore Kypraios, and Philip D. O’Neill, Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki smallpox data, Epidemics, Vol.19, 2017.

Time: 8:00 AM, August 29 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Louis Chan
Journal: Eichner, Martin, and Klaus Dietz, Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak, American Journal of epidemiology, Vol.158, No.2, 2003.

Time: 8:00 AM, August 15 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Yusuke Asai
Title: Periodicity and wavelet analysis
Abstract: Periodicity is the tendency of an event or series of events to happen repeatedly in a fixed pattern and we often encounter natural phenomena with such periodicity. Wavelet analysis is a powerful tool to capture the periodicity and the mathematical background of wavelet analysis will be introduced in this talk. In addition, it will be applied to an outbreak of infectious disease with seasonality.

Time: 8:00 AM, July 24 (Monday)
Presenter: Ryo Kinoshita
Title: Analyzing the trend of infectious disease death in Japan
Abstract: Japan is known to have passed through a rapid demographic transition after World War II, which is characterized by low birth rates and low death rates, and the world’s first aging population. This trend is known to have caused epidemiological transition, and has been perceived that infectious disease related death has been drastically reduced. However, recent disease structure has not completely excluded infectious disease related death. In this research we analyzed time series trends of infectious disease mortality rates in Japan.

Time: Tuesday, July 18, 8:00 AM
Presenter: Tetsuro Kobayashi
Journal : V. Virlogeux, M. Park, J. T. Wu, B. J. Cowling, Association between Severity of MERS-CoV Infection and Incubation Period, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol.22, No.3, 2016.

Time: Thursday, July 13, 8:00 AM
Presenter: Hyojung Lee
Title: Determination of the end of Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
Abstract: We investigated recrudescent events of Ebola virus disease outbreak (EVD) had been occurred after the declaration of the Ebola-free in West Africa, 2014-16. The re-emerging EVD is strongly suspected by persistence of the virus from survivors for months. We construct the stochastic dependence structure model to capture the involvement of sexual transmission. Furthermore, we use an objective approach using generation time distribution to determine the end of outbreak.

Time: Tuesday, July 4, 7:00 AM
Presenter: Akira Endo
Title: Impact of migration on dynamics of avian influenza: a multi-site, multi-species transmission model along East Asian-Australian Flyway
Abstract: Migratory waterfowl are deemed as important hosts of avian influenza; they annually migrate over the continents along the routes known as migratory flyways, presumably serving as a carrier of virus across distant sites. We constructed a multi-site, multi-species transmission model to capture the global dynamics of avian influenza, and to specify species and locations that contribute to sustained transmission.

Time: 7:30 AM, June 27 (Friday)
Presenter: Shinya Tsuzuki
Title: Modelling the optimal target age group for seasonal influenza vaccination in Japan
Abstract: Selecting the most effective vaccination policy for seasonal influenza is an important health issue. In Japan, the current influenza vaccination program is targeting aged individuals, similar to many other developed countries. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza in the population are likely to be mainly driven by children, providing other potential vaccination strategies. I will present the results of applying Bayesian inference model originally constructed by PHE (Public Health England) to Japanese epidemiological data.

Time: 08:00 AM June 23 (Friday)
Presenter: Nao Yamamoto
Journal : N. R. Faria1, J. Quick, I. M. Claro, J. Thézé, J. G. de Jesus, M. Giovanetti, M. U. G. Kraemer, S. C. Hill,A. Black, A. C. da Costa et al. Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas. Nature (2017) doi:10.1038/nature22401.

Time: Thursday, June 15, 8:00 AM
Presenter: Baoyin Yuan
Title: The infection risk assessing of dengue among Japanese travelers visiting South and Southeast Asian countries
Abstract: The growing trend of notifications of imported dengue cases and recent domestic dengue outbreak in 2014 reveal that Japan is confronted with severe dengue situations. Combination of publicly available notifications data in Japan and serological data in suspected source countries makes it possible to obtain a broad overall awareness of current dengue situation in Japan.

Time: Tuesday, June 6, 8:00 AM
Title: Age-period-cohort analysis of female reproductive cancers in Japan
Presenter: Andrei Akhmetzhanov
Abstract: In my report I will focus on two most common reproductive cancers in women: cervical and ovarian cancers. While the majority of cervical cancers are caused by infection of HPV with positive correlation on number of sexual partners, ovarian cancer has the opposite trend: less number of sexual intercourse increases the life-time risk of its development. I will present the age-period-cohort analysis of the dataset from Japanese registry for two cancers and discuss possible directions in future research.

Time: Tuesday, May 30, 8:00 AM
Presenter: Yuko Hamaguchi
Title: Estimating the annual risk of TB infection with INF-γ release assay
Abstract: To evaluate the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) within a population, the annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (ARTI) is one of the essential indicators, where its natural history, however, has been poorly understood. As selo-prevalence survey Tuberculin skin test (TST) has been widely used to assess prevalence of TB infection for long-term, which distinguishes central memory T-cell responses and determine previous, dormant and resolved infection; the TST, hence, be unable to identify whether infection occurs previously or recently being affected by BCC. While, a whole-blood interferon gamma (INF-γ) assay, which is based on the presence of antigen-dependent immediate effector T-cells, detect active and current infection. Although the TST response is longer lasting than the INF-γ response, it is implied that both of them wane their responses resulting into certain reversion. The presentation, therefore, aims to show how our ongoing study derives the resent annual risk of TB infection using current sero-prevalence survey under the INF-γ waning.

Time: 8:00 AM, May 23 (TUE)
Presenter: Lankesh Munasinghe
Title: Deciphering the heterogeneous transmission dynamics using contact data
Abstract: Social contact patterns and directly transmitted infectious diseases are fundamentally linked. Therefore, it is worthwhile to study the dynamics of heterogeneous social contact patterns to understand the impact of person to person contacts on disease transmission. Specifically, age-specific contact patterns have been extensively studied by many researchers to find effective models for transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza. In this work, we analyzed contact data collected from a sample population in Japan to understand their age-specific contact patterns. We will present the current analytical results of our ongoing research work.

Time: 08:00 AM, May 16 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Takayuki Yamaguchi
Title: Formulation and available statistical data of relations between lung cancer and smoking
Abstract: We consider formulation of relations between lung cancer and smoking, which is defined by partial differential equations. We also show available statistical data and parameters which should be estimated.

Time: 8:00 AM, May 9 (Tuesday)
Presenter: Endo Akira
Title: Discrepancy between prevalence and incidence of Zika: age-and-geographical characterization of Zika outbreak in Yap Island, 2007.
Abstract: We reviewed surveillance data of 2009 Zika epidemic in Yap Island reported in Duffy et al. (2009), applying likelihood-based Bayesian inference to gauge the age-and-geographically-dependent force of infection and age-dependent reporting ratio. Inferred age-dependent component of the force of infection was suggested to be up to 3-4 times higher in older adults than in children. Age-dependent reporting ratio ranged from 0.7% (5-9 years old) to 3.3% (50-54 years old). Higher reporting ratio may have reflected more severe clinical presentation among adults.

Time: 8:00 AM, 2nd, May (Tuesday)
Presenter: Hyojung Lee
Title: Modeling for Sexual transmission of Zika virus Infection
Abstract: In this seminar, the presenter will focus on the modeling for sexual transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) and explain the model that takes into account the effects of horizontal transmission through both vectors and sexual contacts. To investigate the role of sexual transmission in the spread of ZIKV is also an aim of this study.

Time: 8:00 AM, 25th, April (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryo Kinoshita
Journal: Iwamoto A, Taira R, Yokomaku Y, Koibuchi T, Rahman M, Izumi Y, et al. The HIV care cascade: Japanese perspectives. PLoS One. 2017;12(3):e0174360.

Time: 8:00 AM, 18th, April (Tuesday)
Presenter: Ryota Matsuyama
Title: Exploration of the optimal design for animal transmission experiment of influenza

Time: 8:00 AM, 11th, April (Tuesday)
Presenter: Andrei Akhmetzhanov
Title: Modeling the spread of Lassa Haemorrhagic fever